Monday, November 3, 2008

The recession will stop in Spain

Spain is poised on the edge of a deep economic depression which will have as a consequence of rapid and massive destruction of jobs, which will last at least two years and leave the 3.5 million unemployed, the highest figure in recent history. Whether the economic forecasts that the European Commission made public yesterday in Brussels, unemployment reached in 2010 to 15.5% of the workforce, composed today by 23 million people of working age. That rate is not reached since 1997. Brussels says that Spain is already in recession, because its gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the third quarter of 2008, continues to fall in the fourth and will plummet during 2009, a period in which the Spanish economy will shrink a 0, 2%, the worst indicator of the four major countries of the eurozone. In 2010 the situation improved slightly, but the creation of wealth will rise just half a point, very little to prevent it from destroying jobs on a massive and continuous In 2007, after decades of GDP growth at a rate far above the European average, Spain managed to reduce its unemployment rate up to an enviable 8.3%, which made the government think that it was possible to reach full employment-an Index of unemployed below 4% - in this legislative session. The crisis has put an end to that dream of a more drastic, because in just ten months of unemployment and slashing the 12%, and according to the wishes of Brussels, will rise to 13.8% in 2009. In 2010, when it is expected that the worst of the economic storm has passed, almost double the rest of the EU, where, despite the crisis, no other partner will handle figures above 10%. "Very carefully" Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Joaquin Almunia, whose department produces every six months the major seasonal forecasts presented in Brussels in the autumn and spring, explained yesterday that "uncertainty" of world economic forces to take "very carefully" these forecasts. Almunia distanced itself from the content of the text - "I do not create, only what I present," he said, but acknowledged that Spain is a country whose economy is more productive affected by the financial storm. Among other things, according to the document distributed yesterday, because the shock wave after the outbreak of the housing bubble has been much stronger than we expected, because the external deficit, the difference between what Spain buys and sells abroad - inasumibles already slashing margins, because families and businesses have too much debt, and because the competitiveness of the Spanish economy is under minimal. Partly that is because, unlike most of its partners, Spain has not benefited from the boom years to consolidate a strong and stable job market, and has allowed its companies based improvements in their competitiveness in the creation of precarious employment, low paid, low-quality, and, above all, closely linked to the property sector. Germany and the UK The figures confirm that theory, because although the Commission also expects GDP growth back or stagnate in countries like Germany, Italy and France over the next two years, unemployment will not exceed 7.5% in the first two examples, and 10% for Gallo. In the UK, where the batacazo GDP is five times greater than the Spanish-fall by 1% in 2009 - will continue to maintain unemployment in the environment of a more reasonable 7%. The second vice president and Economy Minister Pedro Solbes, yesterday took the argument over what Almunia complicated than it forecast in times of crisis, and downplayed the significance of the auguries Commission, claiming that Brussels has failed to take into account the recent decreases in oil prices and interest rates. Solbes went to the Belgian capital to participate in meetings of finance ministers from the euro zone (yesterday) and the Twenty-seven (today). In his view, the Spaniards should be "somewhat optimistic" that the European Commission, especially in regard to the assumption that unemployment in 2010 to reach 15.5% of the population. In the current circumstances, he said, to make predictions to two years' we must take much imagination

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